Proflex Market Update - Wk 23
Markets Consolidating Near All-Time Highs
– But Uncertainty Still Looms
Markets are holding firm above key support levels, with the S&P 500 now within just 3% of its all-time high, thanks to strong earnings, renewed enthusiasm around the Trump tax bill, and broader optimism surrounding tech. But beneath the surface, uncertainty around the trade war with China continues to weigh heavily. While short-term fundamentals are supporting price action, the lack of concrete progress on the trade negotiation front is keeping investors cautious—and rightly so.
Core PCE Cools… But Trump Turns Up the Heat
The Core PCE inflation print came in at its lowest level in a long time, bolstering hopes for a Fed rate cut later this year and offering fundamental support for risk assets.
 Yet, any positive sentiment from this “Goldilocks” data was quickly overshadowed by Trump’s renewed attacks on China. Markets now understand Trump’s negotiation tactics better, particularly his now widely discussed TACO trade rhetoric, but China has also learned to navigate this posturing, prolonging the uncertainty and making it hard for markets to confidently price in resolution. The longer this remains unresolved, the harder it will be for the S&P to break through its ATH with conviction. Our weekly macro call had some interesting discussion this weekend around bond market concerns and potential black swan events brewing in Japan. NVDA Earnings: AI Story Remains IntactNVIDIA delivered impressive earnings, reaffirming its position as the centerpiece of the ongoing AI revolution. While the negative impact from China was evident, it was widely anticipated and thus already priced in by the market. With robust demand from U.S. hyperscalers and sovereign buyers, NVDA’s guidance has rekindled confidence in AI-linked equities. As a result, the tech sector continues to see sustained buying, and we view this as a structural tailwind going into the second half of the year. 📌 Markets is driven by liquidity and long term fundamental trends - but success comes from managing short-term volatility with discipline and structure. Macro Tailwinds:Gold Breaking Out, Bitcoin Holding Strong Free Weekly Insights
Get This Analysis Every WeekJoin 250+ investors at Google, Amazon & Apple who start their week with Proflex. No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. Gold is breaking out today after weeks of consolidation, validating our long-standing thesis that this is a generational bull run driven by sovereign accumulation and weakening trust in U.S. Treasury stability. As deficits soar and the trade war narrative intensifies, central banks are diversifying—often in plain sight—and gold remains their top choice. Meanwhile, Bitcoin continues consolidating above $100k, showing remarkable resilience. We believe Bitcoin may soon follow gold’s breakout if capital inflows persist. This is part of a broader macro trend favoring scarce, sovereign-resistant assets, and one that we expect to continue through the rest of the year. These asset classes have strong medium-term tailwinds—and Proflex portfolios are positioned accordingly. Proflex Playbook – Stay Hedged, Stay RationalWe recommend staying the course with a hedged strategy. Continue to build around core themes like AI, Bitcoin, and Gold, while managing short-term risks through selective trimming and options-based hedges. The market has come a long way from the April lows, but volatility is far from over. If you’re in our All-Access or Managed Portfolios, stay tuned to the Proflex Discord and subscriber email updates for live trade alerts and macro updates. 🧭 Final Thoughts |
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