How the AAII Survey Works
Each week, AAII polls its ~2 million members with one question: "Do you feel the direction of the stock market over the next 6 months will be up (bullish), no change (neutral), or down (bearish)?" Results are published every Thursday at 12:30 PM ET.
What makes it valuable isn't the survey's sophistication — it's its simplicity and longevity. Since 1987, it has accumulated 37 years of data. Patterns at extremes are well-documented and backtested.
Historical Averages (1987–2026)
| Category | Historical Mean | Current Reading | Deviation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bullish | 37.5% | 44.2% | +6.7% above average |
| Neutral | 31.5% | 29.1% | -2.4% below average |
| Bearish | 31.0% | 26.7% | -4.3% below average |
| Bull-Bear Spread | +6.5% | +17.5% | Elevated but not extreme |
When the AAII Survey Becomes Actionable
Contrarian Buy Signals (Extreme Bearishness)
- Bears above 50%: Since 1987, when bearish readings exceed 50%, the S&P has returned an average of +9.8% over the next 6 months (vs +5.1% average). This has occurred 28 times. Win rate: 82%
- Bull-Bear spread below -20%: Even more extreme. Average 6-month forward return: +12.4%. Occurred 14 times. Win rate: 86%
Contrarian Caution Signals (Extreme Bullishness)
- Bulls above 55%: Forward 6-month return drops to +2.1% (vs +5.1% average). Not a sell signal — just reduced expected return and elevated risk
- Bull-Bear spread above +30%: Average 6-month forward return: +1.3%. More importantly, the probability of a 5%+ drawdown within 3 months rises to 54% (vs 31% baseline)
| Date | AAII Reading | Context | S&P 6M Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 5, 2009 | 70% bears | GFC panic bottom | +40.1% |
| Mar 19, 2020 | 52% bears | COVID crash | +42.7% |
| Sep 29, 2022 | 57% bears | 2022 bear bottom | +19.3% |
| Jan 5, 2018 | 60% bulls | Pre-Volmageddon euphoria | -1.8% |
| Nov 3, 2021 | 56% bulls | Pre-2022 bear peak | -13.1% |
Investors Intelligence Survey (Professional Advisors)
While AAII measures retail sentiment, the Investors Intelligence (II) survey polls ~130 professional newsletter writers and market advisors. It's been running since 1964 and offers a professional-level sentiment read:
Key Thresholds
- II Bulls above 60%: Historically precedes corrections. The crowd of "experts" is too uniformly positive
- II Bears above 45%: Contrarian buy zone. Even professionals are capitulating
- Bull/Bear spread > +40%: Extreme complacency among advisors. Correction within 3–6 months in 71% of instances
Current II reading (May 2026): 53% bulls, 22% bears. Bull-bear spread: +31%. Elevated and above the +25% long-term average, but below the +40% extreme danger zone. Advisors are bullish but not euphorically so.
Combining AAII + II for Higher Conviction
The highest-conviction contrarian signals occur when both surveys hit extremes simultaneously. When individual investors AND professional advisors are both at extreme bearishness or bullishness, the signal's reliability improves significantly:
| Signal Cluster | AAII | II | Forward 6M Return | Win Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double Extreme Fear | Bears >50% | Bears >45% | +14.2% avg | 91% |
| Single Extreme Fear | Bears >50% alone | Normal | +9.8% avg | 82% |
| Double Extreme Greed | Bulls >55% | Bulls >60% | -0.4% avg | 38% positive |
| Single Extreme Greed | Bulls >55% alone | Normal | +2.1% avg | 59% positive |
Current Assessment & Weekly Monitoring
AAII (May 22, 2026): 44.2% bulls — above the 37.5% average but well short of the 55% extreme. Eight consecutive weeks of above-average bullishness is notable for trend awareness but doesn't constitute an actionable contrarian signal. No alarm.
Investors Intelligence: 53% bulls, +31% spread. Elevated. Monitor for any push toward 60% bulls or +40% spread.
Action: Neither survey is at extremes. The readings confirm what the Fear & Greed Index and put/call ratio show — elevated but not extreme bullishness. Continue holding positions. Don't chase. Prepare a buy list for when readings inevitably revert toward fear.
Proflex incorporates both AAII and II surveys into our weekly composite sentiment dashboard. When double-extreme readings occur, All-Access members receive specific trade alerts with entry prices and position sizes based on our contrarian framework.