Proflex Weekly Jun 8-12 — SpaceX IPO, War Resolution, Oil Below $80

The S&P 500 came off its June 2 high near 7,616 by about 5%, the NASDAQ took the harder hit as it always does in a tech reset, and the correction stopped almost exactly where structural support sits: the prior all time highs near 7,000.

Then the news that actually matters arrived over the weekend. The Iran conflict is resolving.
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A memorandum of understanding was announced on June 14, with a formal signing targeted for June 19 and Pakistan acting as mediator.
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Oil is voting yes: Brent fell 3.2% to around $85 on the agreement, walking back toward the pre war world below $80. Yields are cooling with it.
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Let's break each section down in this edition.

Insights from Macro Call

Raman framed the week around one idea we have been pressing in the macro group for months: the real money moving through markets is far smaller than the headline numbers suggest.

• Billions sound small against trillion dollar market caps, but that is the trap. The actual cash flow is thin. So when the market has to absorb hundreds of billions in fresh issuance, a 5% correction is the price of clearing it. The IPO was the event the market sold off into, not because of.
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• Oil is the all clear signal, but the physical market lags the screen. Crude is forward looking, which is why the correction stopped here. Yet even with a signed deal, the Strait does not reopen like a tap. Production restarts, missing tankers and the refinery chain take a minimum of two to three months. The futures may not break below $80 immediately even as the direction is clear.
• 2026 moves fast in both directions. The market makers running the book now run their own AI data centers, options drive enormous volume, and leverage is everywhere. Whatever pattern you learned in 2025 and before may not repeat. Be ready for extremes that get more extreme.
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You can watch the complete recording here:

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Key Drivers This Week

SpaceX: The Largest Liquidity Event Ever, Cleared

The IPO priced low and opened strong. The stock listed around $150, never traded near its issuance price, and ran to an intraday high near $176 before settling, closing its debut up roughly 19%.
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Valuation crossed $1.75 trillion and briefly touched $2 trillion. Retail participation was enormous.

The number that matters is not the valuation. It is the demand.
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You cannot put a normal multiple on a two trillion dollar company that is effectively a startup building data centers in space and colonies on the moon. It is a story, and the story sold.

The War Resolves: Oil Carries the All Clear

For the hundredth time, the end of the war has been declared, but this time the price action agrees.
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Crude is back below $83 and pointed lower, with the psychological $80 mark in view. Yields are easing in sympathy, the 10 year back near 4.445% after threatening 4.7% earlier this month.

The caveat is physical, not political.
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Tankers are slipping back through the Strait and fuel exports are rebounding, but operators want clear transit procedures and security guarantees before normal volumes return. The full supply chain runs three to four months.

Warsh Takes the Chair: A Hike Is Back on the Table

Wednesday brings the first FOMC meeting chaired by Kevin Warsh. A hold is near certain (97% to 99%, CME FedWatch), so the meeting is entirely about the press conference and the dots. Cuts are off the table.

The market now assigns better than 50% odds that the next move is a hike, with roughly 43% pricing a 25bp increase by December.

That is the scary thought for valuations. Headline CPI is running near 4.2% while core sits closer to 2.9%, an energy driven split. Warsh reads inflation through trimmed mean measures, the kind that ignore one off spikes from geopolitics or a single category.
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In his words, he cares about the underlying rate, "not the one time change in prices because of a change in geopolitics."

Semis Sprint, Software Stalls

The recovery has the same narrow signature as the rally that preceded it.
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Semiconductors are leading the bounce hard, with the SOXX up roughly 90% year to date and the semi index already racing back toward its all time high. Software is still lagging.

The IGV tried to break out in early June and got pulled right back into the correction.

This is the structural question of 2026. ​
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If the frontier model builders run directly on silicon, the intermediary software layer has a moat problem. The Apple and Google arrangement, paying for the model as a fixed cost contract rather than per use, is the template enterprises will copy where they can.

Gold and Bitcoin: Two Trendlines on the Line

Gold broke below its trend line this week and is now trying to climb back above it, sitting near $4,300 after three sessions up on the peace news.
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We have tracked this long term line since November 2024 and flagged the top risk back in January when it was overheated.
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The line is not yet reclaimed convincingly, but there is heavy support in the $4,000 zone. We do not give up on the long term trend while it holds above $4,000.

Bitcoin is the weaker chart. It slid below $60,000, the long term trend line off the prior cycle, after trading near $77,000 in late May.
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The four year cycle argues the bottom forms toward the end of this year. MicroStrategy, holding north of 845,000 BTC, made its first small sale in years and has since resumed buying. Bitcoin remains a pure function of liquidity and money supply, which is exactly why this Fed meeting matters to it.

🔍 What We’re Watching

• Wednesday's FOMC and Warsh's first press conference. Hike framing versus look through framing is the whole market this week.
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• Whether oil actually breaks $80 or stalls above it on the physical supply lag.
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• Software (IGV) holding its early June recovery versus rolling back over while semis run alone.
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• The next IPO timelines. Anthropic (S-1 filed, targeting October near a $1 trillion valuation) and OpenAI (filed June 8) decide whether this week's liquidity drain was a one off or the first of three.

🧭 Proflex Playbook – Discipline in an Stretched Rally​
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​With War in Intermediation, Institutional Reversal, International market selloff, we see the market to absorb signification shocks. But the speed of this move demands respect, not complacency.
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Our conviction stays anchored in the data:

• Focus on Structural Growth: Continue to overweight the secular AI theme, recognizing its multi-year runway.
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• Anticipate Shallow Corrections: Use dips as accumulation opportunities, not reasons for fear, understanding that "none of the corrections stick."
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• Diversify Thoughtfully: Recognize the "decorrelation" across asset classes; consider gold, silver and Bitcoin for portfolio resilience.
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• Develop Mental Models: Prioritize long-term planning (6-12 months out) over short-term news, aiming for consistent, incremental gains.

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If you're an All-Access or Managed Portfolio subscriber, our positioning has already shifted ahead of this moment—scaling up asymmetric hard asset plays while hedging for earnings volatility and geopolitical tail risks.

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Until next week,
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— The Proflex Team
​ Trusted Macro Insights. Calm Investing. Tactical Trades.